I read India’s Electric vehicle market is expected to grow at a CAGR of 90 per cent in this decade to touch $150 billion by 2030. The launch of state policies, rising fuel prices, tightening emissions laws and increasing awareness of the green environment are few factors making the sector attractive to larger automobile players.
The sheep mentality is ever so consenting. I feel now, as many things, we have once again decided to blindly follow the dictate of few that for definite ulterior motives have created this half faux knowledge that EV is the best thing that can happen to the Planet & to the future generations & habitants of our beloved world.
I believe we cannot be further than the truth….Why?
Let’s take a few steps back & understand just about early 2019 there was not much that was spoken on EV in India. I remember in Dec 2017 reading so much about EV across various journals/papers, remembering it was much in vogue to think at that time how can anyone disrupt the ICE Eco-system…there are ~12 Mn people associated directly with Auto & ICE engine trade currently in India. Ice trade generates over USD 150 Bn is involved in Auto ICE business in India with OEMs, Vendors, Suppliers, Ancillaries etc. This is on account of conventional automotive supply chain and particularly those into manufacturing ICE parts for two-wheelers, four-wheelers, and larger vehicles. To understand better the manufacturing an EV is with only 20 moving parts and is relatively very simpler as compared to making an ICE vehicle with around 2,000 moving parts. Hence, the supplier and manufacturer ecosystem of ICE vehicles would be disrupted & their addressable market size would shrink along with impact in the aftermarket including vehicle repairs or servicing.
Still looking for the Silver lining…it gets worse..
The batteries for electric cars use a lot of lithium, the lightest metal and the lightest solid element under normal conditions. Chile produces the largest amount of lithium (8,800 tons per year), with other big producers including Argentina and China, while Bolivia has the world’s largest known reserves. Other metals used in electric cars include copper, cobalt, aluminum, nickel and sometimes manganese, along with conductive non-metal graphite. Currently the EV share of business is 1.12% of total passenger cars & 4% of 2Ws required by the market. We will struggle to create large numbers of electric vehicles as simply because we don’t have sufficient access to sources of lithium to make the batteries and we don’t have the factories to make them in either.
Making electric cars creates more emissions
To get a real idea of how much greenhouse gas is emitted during the manufacture of an electric car, we have to look at how its components are sourced and made. The raw materials for making the car have to be mined, and the process of mining creates a lot of greenhouse gases. Then the raw materials have to be refined before they can be used, which again emits more greenhouse gas. Then more greenhouse gas is emitted in the manufacturing process. The same is also true when manufacturing a petrol or diesel car. So, taking into account the whole production process, making a petrol or diesel car releases about 7 to 10 tons of CO2 which will be the same as EV car. Additionally it is estimated that 150kg of CO2 are released for every 1 kiloWatt hour (kWh) of battery capacity. For an electric car to have a decent range (say 300 miles) between charges, it needs a battery that’s at least 60kWh in capacity. This means that a further 9 tons of CO2 will be emitted during the making of an electric car, giving a total of 16-19 tonnes of CO2 emitted. So at this point, an electric car seems worse for the environment than a fossil fuel one.
So to compare Pros & Cons in summary…
Pros – Environment Friendly (debatable!) – Engine cars burn fossil fuels and the by-product of this process are harmful gases that saturate in the atmosphere and create air pollution. Opting for an electric car leads to zero emissions and allows you to free yourself from the guilt of causing this environmental damage, Savings (OK) – as fuel prices continue to soar, electric cars are way more cost-efficient in the short as well as long run. If you own a petrol car, it can cost you around Rs 9 to Rs 10 per Kilometer of running on an average. As for an electric car, that cost comes significantly down to Rs 1.2 to 1.4 per kilometer as per the average electricity costs of today. Tax Benefit (this is only momentary) – in an effort to increase EV adoption, a number of Indian states are waiving off road tax on them. Moreover, the Government of India has come up with an extensive program for transport electrification, which is being implemented through Faster Adoption and Manufacturing of (Hybrid &) Electric Vehicles (FAME) schemes (I and II). These plans result 5% reduction of GST on EVs and even offer an income tax exemption of up to Rs. 1,50,000 on interest payments for EV loans; Lower Maintenance Costs (obviously) – Less parts mean less maintenance – Engine cars need large engines that occupy a lot of the space on their chassis. An EV runs on a motor that’s directly powered by a battery, which means there’s a considerably low number of parts to deal with. During the long term, this results in remarkably low maintenance costs.
Cons – Higher Prices (Bloody YES) – Dependency is high for Battery parts, today a good portion of the components are imported only. Local readiness for Lithium-ion-batteries is negligible. Also because of so much development & continuously upgrading technology (like Sulphur-ion etc.) there is cost associated with the EVs; Limited Charging Stations (not mentioning the real estate costs involved!) – The lack of charging stations is a major point of anxiety that discourages people from buying EVs. Long journeys become very tricky since there’s always the fear of finding yourself in the middle of nowhere with no charging station in sight; Charging Takes Time (in today’s day& age!) – Whenever you do find a charging station, juicing up the battery of your car takes a pretty long time. This is one advantage petrol/diesel cars have over EVs as they can be refueled in only a few minutes; Periodic Battery Replacement (up to 70% of the cost of the vehicle!) – The batteries of electric cars are expensive so whenever they reach the end of their cycles, replacing them will incur a big cost.
& to top the Cons – Electric cars ‘pose environmental threat’: The Norwegian University of Science and Technology study says “The global warming potential from electric vehicle production is about twice that of conventional vehicles.” This is based on toxic waste generated during production, usage & end-of-life dismantling of the vehicle affecting the environment! It is important to note that producing batteries and electric motors requires a lot of toxic minerals such as nickel, copper and aluminum.
What effects are possible in the environment because of toxic waste release by EV – acid rain, airborne particulate matter, smog, human toxicity, ecosystem toxicity and depletion of fossil fuel and mineral resources!!
In conclusion EV is what the ‘pager’ was to communication & lot of development needs to be done before Politicians, Business people take the customer for a ride!!
What can be…….check the Advance Engine technologies in ICE for mission control
if you can drive a gas-powered car without emitting any CO2? Recent breakthroughs show it may be possible.
Emissions-Free ICE Designs
Researchers have developed ceramic membranes that capture harmful gases within an engine before they exit into the atmosphere. They separate oxygen from the air to produce pure combustion that produces just water and CO2. The motor then captures that CO2 and liquefies it for internal storage.
Smart Cylinder Deactivation
Cars don’t always need the power of all their cylinders firing simultaneously, so they often waste energy, producing excessive emissions. However, if they could change how many cylinders they use in real-time, they would become considerably more efficient. Smart cylinder deactivation analyzes multiple factors within an engine to do just that. This can help reduce NOx emissions from 33% to 50% from LCV to HCV.
Transient Plasma Ignition
Transient plasma ignition (TPI), a recent breakthrough that could replace conventional spark plugs, is far more efficient. These systems generate a low-temperature plasma delivering millijoules of energy in nanoseconds, igniting the fuel faster and at a much lower temperature. As a result, TPI can boost fuel economy by 15% and improve engines’ power delivery.
Other measures that can be are – Predictive Maintenance – which analyzes various factors to alert drivers when they need repairs, solves both issues. Seemingly small readings can reveal a lot about a vehicle’s maintenance needs. Waste Energy Recovery – Only about 10%-16% of their fuel energy actually drives the vehicle, with most of it turning into heat or mechanical energy. Some researchers have suggested using this otherwise wasted power elsewhere in the car.
Laveenomics 